The Missouri Tigers went 25-10, finished fourth in the SEC, and advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season. (Photo: Thomas Grove)
Terrance Williams
Staff Writer
University of Missouri men’s basketball fans were in a pretty dark place following the 2021-22 season. Missouri was coming off its worst season (non-Kim Anderson edition) since 2006 and the Tigers were No. 137 in the national KenPom rankings.
It was exactly the type of season Cuonzo Martin was hired to avoid and yet there he was, winning just 12 games and getting fired at the end of the season. Things were so dire in Columbia that when the news trickled out that Martin’s replacement would be Cleveland State head coach Dennis Gates, the reaction was less than positive. Some fans were flat out angry.
But the good news for Mizzou fans is that initial fan reaction is not an indicator of future success because since taking the job Gates has struck the right note at nearly every turn. He quickly assembled a rag-tag bunch of mid-major misfits and built that roster around all-conference forward Kobe Brown.
That Tiger team then went out and won 25 games, got a double bye in the SEC Tournament, won the program’s first NCAA Tournament game since 2010. Then when the season ended, Brown got picked in the 1st round of the NBA Draft, fellow senior D’Moi Hodge earned himself a two-way contract with the Los Angeles Lakers, and Gates currently has the top overall recruiting class in 2023.
So as surprising as it is, it’s been a pretty solid 18 months of worth of work for Coach Gates.
Missouri Tigers
Last Season: 25 – 10 (11-7 in SEC) No. 57 KenPom
STLBTS Prediction: 20 – 11 (10-8, 6th in conference)
The Masses Prediction: 10.2 – 7.8 (6th in conference)
SEC Media Prediction: 9th in conference
KenPom Projection: 17-14 (8-10 in conference) No. 55
HEAD COACH: Dennis Gates | 2nd Season, 25-10 last yr.
So it’s safe to say that most, if not all, Missouri fans are pretty happy with how things are going in the Dennis Gates era. His turnaround in one year seemed to border on wizardry at times, with a reliance upon a spread five out offense and a high volume of three point shots from a team with little regard for defense or rebounding.
That specialty offense in a league like the SEC was enough to earn the Tigers their best finish in the SEC. Mizzou finished 11-7 in the conference, a mark only equaled in their first season in the SEC under Frank Haith. But that season they finished tied for 5th, instead of 4th.
Gates has momentum at Missouri like no coach has had for a long time. On top of a stellar record of recruiting under Leonard Hamilton at Florida State, Gates now had legitimate on-the-court success he can point to with recruits and it’s paid dividends with the 2024 recruiting class.
On top of winning 25 games in his first season, he’s now going to be able to build a roster deep with higher-end talent. Last year, Gates went heavy with players he knew, mostly from mid to low majors. This year, he’s stepped up the level of transfers he’s brought in, although the playing style isn’t expected to change. After all why change up what works?
Mizzou won 30 games in 2012, then 23 in each of 2013 and 2014. Cuonzo Martin got to 20 once in his first season, but Gates hitting 25 was the most for the program since that 30-win season. You have to go back two more years for the last time Mizzou won an NCAA Tournament game. Missouri has had success in and around the last 15-20 years, but the success has generally been fleeting and or erratic.
Now that the ugliness of the Kim Anderson era is fully behind the program, and Martin’s mostly middling results are gone now too, it’s up to Gates to see if he can permanently elevate this program.
MIZZOU HOOPS PRESEASON DEPTH CHART
| Position | Starter | Backup | Reserves |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Point Guard | Nick Honor | Sean East II | Anthony Robinson II |
| (2) Combo Guard | Tamar Bates | Caleb Grill | Kaleb Brown |
| (3) Wing | John Tonje | Aidan Shaw | Curt Lewis |
| (4) Combo Forward | Noah Carter | Trent Pierce | Jesus Carralero |
| (5) Post | Connor Vanover | Jordan Butler |
Figuring out the depth chart is easy when you start at point guard with Nick Honor. From there Dennis Gates can go in a lot of different directions, but it seems safe to assume that Noah Carter will take over the spot manned by Kobe Brown last year.
Connor Vanover seems the safest bet to start at the five, and with John Tonje’s fit it would make sense that he’s the fourth starter. Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill both could see starts at the 5th spot, depending on matchups. But those six, plus Sean East, seem to be the consensus picks for the top minutes getters on this roster.
Aidan Shaw, Trent Pierce, Curt Lewis, and Jesus Carralero are all likely to see some minutes as well, with Kaleb Brown, Anthony Robinson and Jordan Butler collecting some spare minutes from what we can gather. The battle between 8 and 12 should be a hot one.
MIZZOU SCHEDULE & PROJECTED RECORD
STLBTS Projected Record: 20-11 | KenPom Projected Record: 17-14
NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
| Date | Location | Opponent | KenPom | Projected W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 6 | Home | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 339 | W |
| Nov. 10 | Home | Memphis | 32 | W |
| Nov. 13 | Home | SIU-Edwardsville | 240 | W |
| Nov. 16 | Away | Minnesota | 112 | W |
| Nov. 19 | Home | Jackson State | 219 | W |
| Nov. 22 | Home | South Carolina State | 345 | W |
| Nov. 25 | Home | Loyola Maryland | 303 | W |
| Nov. 28 | Away | Pittsburgh | 62 | L |
| Dec. 3 | Home | Wichita State | 141 | W |
| Dec. 9 | Away | Kansas | 2 | L |
| Dec. 17 | in Kansas City | Seton Hall | 56 | W |
| Dec. 22 | in St. Louis | Illinois | 19 | L |
| Dec. 30 | Home | Central Arkansas | 319 | W |
| avg | 168.38 | 10-3 |
Anytime you automatically have Kansas, Illinois, and an ACC opponent (thanks to the ACC-SEC Challenge) on your non-conference schedule there really isn’t a big need to load up outside of that. Missouri faces the preseason odds-on favorite to win the national title, and a contender for a top 4 finish in the Big 10 right out of the gate, building a schedule that the NCAA Tournament committee will like is pretty easy from there.
So Missouri still added Wichita State, Seton Hall, Minnesota, and Memphis into that mix. Only Memphis is projected to finish inside the top 50 in KenPom right now, but the other three will provide opportunities for good wins. The rest of the schedule is mostly fodder with Jackson State and Southern Illinois-Edwardsville as the only teams inside the top 300.
SEC CONFERENCE GAMES
| Date | Location | Opponent | KenPom | Projected W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 6 | Home | Georgia | 57 | W |
| Jan. 9 | Away | Kentucky | 18 | L |
| Jan. 13 | Home | South Carolina | 66 | W |
| Jan. 16 | Away | Alabama | 10 | L |
| Jan. 20 | Home | Florida | 39 | W |
| Jan. 23 | Away | Texas A&M | 24 | L |
| Jan. 27 | Away | South Carolina | 66 | W |
| Jan. 31 | Home | Arkansas | 14 | W |
| Feb. 3 | Away | Vanderbilt | 79 | L |
| Feb. 7 | Home | Texas A&M | 24 | W |
| Feb. 10 | Home | Mississippi State | 27 | W |
| Feb. 17 | Away | Ole Miss | 82 | L |
| Feb. 20 | Home | Tennessee | 8 | W |
| Feb. 24 | Away | Arkansas | 14 | L |
| Feb. 28 | Away | Florida | 39 | L |
| Mar. 2 | Home | Ole Miss | 82 | W |
| Mar. 5 | Home | Auburn | 15 | W |
| Mar. 9 | Away | LSU | 47 | L |
| avg | 39.50 | 10-8 |
Winning in the SEC is often about taking care of the games you can win, being nearly unbeatable at home, and then catching a game or two most wouldn’t expect. Last year, Missouri did that. They only lost to Alabama and Texas A&M at home and beat Ole Miss, Georgia, and LSU on the road. Then they shocked Tennessee on the road to complete the schedule.
This year, Missouri opens with a winnable home game before traveling to Kentucky. It’s never easy to win at Rupp Arena, but the Wildcats are young and John Calipari’s teams are usually stronger down the stretch than they are early. Then a trip back home to play South Carolina, that’s as good of a three-game start as you could ask for.
A few other key games to keep an eye on are the road trips to South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and LSU. All winnable road tests. Then home games against Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State.
Having home-court advantage over the top of the league you hope to be able to go 3-1 in those games. Fans should also watch Missouri’s home and home against Florida for the first time since 2014.
Both the Tigers and the Gators should be jockeying for position in and around the middle of the league, if Mizzou can win at Florida late and hold serve at home early that would give them a big leg up in the league standings.
SEASON OVERVIEW
Last season is over, but the optimism that surrounds the Missouri basketball program is still very prevalent. Mizzou was able to exploit a league largely devoid of good offense by focusing in hard on scoring the ball and letting everyone else try to play catch up. If you look up and down the league over the years, it’s been a defensive league fraught with hard-nosed defenses that make you work hard to score. And in true fashion, the league just copy-catted itself by hiring coaches who want to defend-defend-defend.
Mizzou last season was a hard pivot. They had the 9th best offense in the country and best in the SEC by a comfortable margin. They were 0.03 points per possession better than Alabama, a team known for being an elite offense under Nate Oats. How they did it was with a high percentage of three-point shots (2nd only to Alabama), a low turnover rate, and attacking the rim. The defense was awful, but they halfway made up for it by forcing a truckload of turnovers and many of them steals, which would be live ball turnovers. Garnering more possessions, being more efficient on offense, and just forcing your opponent to score with you.
Most teams can’t do that. At least not in the SEC. Even when you’re playing below-median defense for all of Division 1 schools. There were plenty of games where Mizzou simply outscored their opponent. The question is, can they do that again?
Point guard Sean East is expected to be one of Mizzou’s top playmakers this season. (Photo: Primo Greenway)
There really isn’t a big reason to believe they can’t play with that level of offense again. There’s no Kobe Brown to suck defenses towards him. There’s no Isiaih Mosley or Deandre Gholston to take late-clock shots. But there’s a deep roster of good players and they can all shoot the basketball. Every addition Dennis Gates made this offseason were players who could shoot the ball at their position. Tamar Bates, Caleb Grill, John Tonje, Connor Vanover, all transfers who shot the ball at a high level.
Mizzou fans will get their first look at the Tigers on Monday, November 6, when the team opens the new season with a game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. That matchup at Mizzou Arena is slated to tip off at 7 p.m.
2023-24 Mizzou Tigers Men’s Basketball Schedule
| Date | Time | At | Opponent | Location | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 6, 2023 (Monday) | 7 p.m. | Home | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Mizzou Arena |  |
| November 10, 2023 (Friday) | 8 p.m. | Home | Memphis | Mizzou Arena |  |
| November 13, 2023 (Monday) | 7 p.m. | Home | SIU-Edwardsville | Mizzou Arena | |
| November 16, 2023 (Thursday) | 8 p.m. | Away | Minnesota | Minneapolis, Minn. |  |
| November 19, 2023 (Sunday) | 5 p.m. | Home | Jackson State | Mizzou Arena | |
| November 22, 2023 (Wednesday) | 6 p.m. | Home | South Carolina State | Mizzou Arena | |
| November 25, 2023 (Saturday) | 11 a.m. | Home | Loyola | Mizzou Arena | |
| November 28, 2023 (Tuesday) | 6:30 p.m. | Away | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh, Pa. |  |
| December 3, 2023 (Sunday) | 2 p.m. | Home | Wichita State | Mizzou Arena |  |
| December 9, 2023 (Saturday) | 4:15 p.m. | Away | Kansas | Lawrence, Kan. |  |
| December 17, 2023 (Sunday) | 4 p.m. | T-Mobile Center | Seton Hall | Kansas City, Mo. | |
| December 22, 2023 (Friday) | 8 p.m. | Enterprise Center | Illinois | St. Louis, Mo. |  |
| December 30, 2023 (Saturday) | 2 p.m. | Home | Central Arkansas | Mizzou Arena | |
| January 6, 2024 (Saturday) | Noon | Home | Georgia | Mizzou Arena | |
| January 9, 2024 (Tuesday) | 6 p.m. | Away | Kentucky | Lexington, Ky. | |
| January 13, 2024 (Saturday) | 2:30 p.m. | Home | South Carolina | Mizzou Arena | |
| January 16, 2024 (Tuesday) | 6 p.m. | Away | Alabama | Tuscaloosa, Ala. | |
| January 20, 2024 (Saturday) | TBA | Home | Florida | Mizzou Arena | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| January 23, 2024 (Tuesday) | 8 p.m. | Away | Texas A&M | College Station, Texas | |
| January 27, 2024 (Saturday) | Noon CT | Away | South Carolina | Columbia, S.C. | |
| January 31, 2024 (Wednesday) | 7:30 p.m. | Home | Arkansas | Mizzou Arena | |
| February 3, 2024 (Saturday) | 2:30 p.m. | Away | Vanderbilt | Nashville, Tenn. | |
| February 7, 2024 (Wednesday) | 8 p.m. | Home | Texas A&M | Mizzou Arena | |
| February 10, 2024 (Saturday) | 7:30 p.m. | Home | Mississippi State | Mizzou Arena | |
| February 17, 2024 (Saturday) | 7:30 p.m. | Away | Ole Miss | Oxford, Miss. | |
| February 20, 2024 (Tuesday) | 6 p.m. | Home | Tennessee | Mizzou Arena | |
| February 24, 2024 (Saturday) | 11 a.m. | Away | Arkansas | Fayetteville, Ark. | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| February 28, 2024 (Wednesday) | 5:30 p.m. CT | Away | Florida | Gainesville, Fla. | |
| March 2, 2024 (Saturday) | 7:30 p.m. | Home | Ole Miss | Mizzou Arena | |
| March 5, 2024 (Tuesday) | 8 p.m. | Home | Auburn | Mizzou Arena | |
| March 9, 2024 (Saturday) | 7:30 p.m. | Away | LSU | Baton Rouge, La. | |
| March 13-17, 2024 (Wednesday) | TBA | Neutral | SEC Tournament | Nashville, Tenn. / Bridgestone Arena |